Ukraine war: Is Europe providing enough support to Russia?

When the widow of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny recently addressed the European Parliament, she said something shocking. “If you really want to defeat Putin, you have to become an innovator,” Yulia Navalnaya told lawmakers. “And you have to stop being bored.”

Characteristics of being innovative and interesting may not always be associated with some European politicians.

But they are being forced to think differently, not only on how to better support Ukraine, but also to increase pressure on Russia.

The shadow of a possible Donald Trump presidency hangs over the continent, raising questions about America's long-term support for Ukraine.

A $60bn (£47bn) US military aid package is being debated in the House of Commons. And on the battlefield, Russian forces are beginning to win victories over their less well-armed opponents.

Two years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European capitals largely maintain political support for Kiev.

The European Union agreed in January on a €50bn ($55bn, £43bn) package of grants and loans to fund Ukraine's government and public services.

However, the EU failed to meet its goal of sending 1 million shells to Ukraine by the beginning of this month.

EU diplomats are still negotiating over a plan to add another 5 billion euros to the European Peace Facility to buy more weapons for Kiev. And NATO says about a dozen European members may still miss the alliance's goal of spending 2% of national output on defense this year.

The shifting diplomatic and military balance requires Europe to think creatively about how to support Ukraine and deter future Russian aggression.

There are existing stocks of ammunition and weapons that Europe could provide to Ukraine.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron told the House of Lords this week that allies should give weapons systems to Ukraine when they are past their technical use-by date, rather than dismantling them at great expense. Ta.

He also said Eastern European countries with “former Soviet ammunition” suitable for Ukrainian weapons should immediately release their stocks.

But as throughout the war, European leaders are still struggling to decide what weapons to give Kiev.

The latest uproar is over Germany's Taurus missile. These have a range of approximately 300 miles (500 km), longer than the British-supplied Storm Her Shadow used by Ukraine.

Many allies believe that Taurus will give Ukraine the opportunity to attack behind Russian lines.

However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has resisted the move, fearing escalation and fearing it could also be used against Russian cities.

There are also plans to obtain much-needed shells for Ukraine. The Czech government this week agreed a $1.5bn (£1.2bn) deal with a consortium of 18 NATO and EU countries to buy 800,000 rounds of ammunition in both 155mm and 122mm calibers from outside the EU. .

This is a big change for EU member states, especially France, which have more protectionist views. But it will not meet Ukraine's demand for 2.5 million shells this year.

Policymakers are also considering new ways to increase defense spending, including a proposal to lift a ban on the European Investment Bank from funding defense projects.

There are proposals for European countries to jointly purchase weapons from manufacturers and further cooperate on defense procurement to reduce costs. The government is also considering awarding long-term contracts to defense companies to expand production in high-risk industries.

But things rarely happen overnight. A British minister told me: “People forget that it was four years from Dunkirk to D-Day. It takes a long time to create a mass that moves from defense to attack.”

Estonia wants all NATO countries to commit to providing Ukraine with at least 0.25% of their production as military support, as they have done in the past.

This will raise approximately 120 billion euros annually. Although some allies are sympathetic, the idea has not yet won widespread support.

Some European policymakers are also developing plans for a modern “lend-lease” arrangement to lend arms to Ukraine, similar to what the Allies did to the Soviet Union during World War II. Some places do. However, these ideas are in their early stages.

Much consideration is being given to how best to utilize around 300 billion euros of Russian frozen assets held in Western financial institutions.

Giving this money outright to Ukraine could be illegal and could put European assets at risk in other jurisdictions.

But the EU is considering a plan to use the profits to fund military aid to Ukraine. And Britain is considering another proposal to use the assets as collateral for prompt compensation to Ukraine.

The aim is not only to raise money for Ukraine, but also to deal a strategic blow to Russia, which has been taking a huge toll on its economy.

As a result, some European policymakers are thinking horizontally. But tensions remain.

Many Eastern European countries invest more military resources than Western countries. A soft-spoken German officer upsets the Allies by revealing military secrets.

And while French President Emmanuel Macron ruffled feathers by suggesting that the West should consider putting on military boots in Ukraine, many analysts believe there is an unnecessary debate over impossible options. I think it's a fight.

Perhaps the biggest disagreement within European capitals concerns the long-term challenge from Russia.

A recent poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank found that while most Europeans support Ukraine, only one in 10 think it can achieve an outright victory. It's only people.

Some analysts say this is because European governments do not understand the broader challenge from Russia.

“There is no evidence that the highest levels of politics understood the scale of the threat or tried to explain it to the public,” said Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, a British think tank.

“If we act too slowly to avoid disaster, it will be because of the complacency of criminals.”

So will Europe rise to the challenge? Perhaps there were small hints of change this week.

France has long been criticized for not providing enough military aid to Ukraine. However, President Macron, who had previously said that Russia should not be humiliated, took a bullish stance.

“We are definitely approaching a time when Europe needs to stop being a coward,” he said.