It's not just the humidity that's making midtown Manhattan sweaty: The Tony Awards are to blame!
The races for some of Broadway's biggest nights are all but over, but the most coveted award, Best Musical, remains close until the very end.
No one knows whether “Hell's Kitchen” or “The Outsiders” will win.
I guarantee this year's telecast will be a lot more enjoyable than the smooth road to “Oppenheimer” at the Oscars.
Here's who we think will win at the Tony Awards, which air on CBS at 8 p.m. Sunday.
Best Musical: “The Outsiders”
Yes, there are five nominees: “Hell's Kitchen,” “Illinois,” “Suffs,” “Water for Elephants” and “The Outsiders.”
But as has been the case ever since the nominations were announced in April, the real competition is between Alicia Keys' “Hell's Kitchen” and a twangy adaptation of S.E. Hinton's young adult novel “The Outsiders.”
I spoke to voters for all of these shows, and the ones that got the most passionate responses were the Greasers and the Sox.
“Everyone says 'Hell's Kitchen,' but I say 'The Outsiders,'” one voter told me. “It's a work of art.”
More apathetic were supporters of “Hell's Kitchen,” who were less enthusiastic about why they clicked the box next to the show. “I don't know why!” they said.
The Outsiders voter also made a historical observation: “It's much better. Same as Wicked and Avenue Q. Everyone was expecting Wicked.”
Broadway fans still talk about the Tony Awards from 20 years ago, when the hilarious puppet musical scored a shock win for Elphaba thanks to a savvy “Vote Your Heart” campaign.
But the battle is reminiscent of the one that took place a few years later: “Beautiful: The Carole King Musical” versus “A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder” — a battle between a jukebox giant and a book-adaptation that was gaining momentum.
You see, “Gent's Guide” beat “Tapestry” in part because it had a number of producers who conveniently were also Tony Award voters.
Now, consider that “The Outsiders” has roughly twice as many producers as “Hell's Kitchen,” and the cynic in me thinks that difference could be problematic.
Meanwhile, many say Keyes' show has captured the attention of 100 or so “road voters” who want the show to come to their town.
This category is very close, but I've spoken to enough insiders who say “outsider.”
Best Play: “Stereophonic'
Stevie Nicks once sang about landslides.
I thought “A Prayer for the French Republic” and “Mary Jane” were great as well, but David Azimi's “Stereophonic,” which is basically about a fictional 1970s band like Fleetwood Mac, is the only other contender here.
It features over three hours of original rock songs.
Voters cannot resist.
Best Musical Revival: “Merrily We Roll Along”'
Remember a few months ago when everyone (wrongly!) thought that the glorious revival of “Merrily We Roll Along” would be in a fierce battle with the dark, atmospheric “Cabaret”?
Welcome, welcomereality! “Cabaret” has zero potential.
“Merrily,” a failed Stephen Sondheim remake, will win handily, and “Cabaret” will naturally win the award for best set design (Tom Scutt).
Best Play Revival: “Proper'
Brandon Jacobs Jenkins' play has only been performed a little over a decade, but it holds its own against Ibsen's work.
Opinion is divided as to whether this relatively new play is essentially a revival, but it has more fans than “An Enemy of the People” (albeit a hit) and the long-canceled “Victory.”
And the actors…
Jonathan Groff is sure to win his first Tony Award for Best Actor in a Musical for “Merrily We Roll Along,” while his co-star Daniel Radcliffe will win Best Featured Actor in a Musical.
Maybe “Succession's” Jeremy Strong will finally get over the pain of losing the TV award to Kieran Culkin by winning Best Actor in a Drama for “An Enemy of the People.”
And Sarah Paulson is likely to win best play actress over her “American Horror Story” co-star Jessica Lange (“Mother Play”) for her villainous performance in “Appropriate.”
Best Featured Actress in a Musical is a close call: It could go to Lindsay Mendes for “Merilee” (it would make sense to give it to all three), or it could go to Kecia Lewis for her incredible singing and emotional range in “Hell's Kitchen.” My bet is Lewis.
Being a musical actress is even harder.
Will it be Kelli O'Hara, who gave a fantastic performance as a nightmarish drunk in “Days of Wine and Roses,” or Mariah Joy Moon, a rising star with a fantastic voice in “Hell's Kitchen”? I'm going with O'Hara, simply because she has a stronger character.
Or drink more alcohol.
