Israel's bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, which killed senior Iranian military and intelligence officials, is a major escalation in the long-simmering undeclared war between Israel and Iran.
Iran has promised massive retaliation, and the risk of miscalculation is ever present. However, given the interests of both countries, neither Israel nor Iran, while seeking dominance in Gaza and southern Lebanon, desire a large-scale gunfight.
Rather, the attack underscores the regional nature of the conflict, as Israel seeks to weaken and deter Iranian allies and proxies that threaten Israeli security from all directions.
The war is often referred to as the “war between wars,” with Israel and Iran as the main adversaries, clashing in the shadow of more overt hostilities in the region.
The Iranian officials killed on Monday are responsible for arming and directing numerous proxy forces in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen as part of Iran's apparent efforts to destabilize and even destroy the Jewish state. He was deeply engaged for ten years.
For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who likely authorized such a sensitive attack, succeeding in removing such a key figure in the Iranian military would be a political coup. The move comes as protests calling for his resignation intensify as the war with Hamas drags on and Israeli hostages remain in Gaza.
Israel has flaunted its ability to infiltrate Iranian intelligence services and attacked operational parts of Iran's regional proxy, the so-called Axis of Resistance against Israel, even as the war in Gaza continues, disrupting and deterring Iran. is aiming for.
Since the war began in October, Israel has begun targeting key Iranian officials responsible for ties to proxies, as well as advanced weapons provided by Tehran, said Ali, director of the International Crisis Group's Iran Project. Baez said.
But no matter how many experienced generals Israel removes, “no one is irreplaceable in the Iranian system,” he said. “Iran knows this is a dangerous match and it comes with a price tag.”
Some worry that the cost will be borne by Israel's allies. Ralph Goff, a former high-ranking CIA official who served in the Middle East, called the Israeli attack “incredibly reckless,” referring to the U.S. military's Central Command, saying, “Israelis are paying a check that U.S. Centcom forces will have to cash. “I am writing,” he added.
“It just leads to escalation by Iran and its proxies, which is very dangerous” for U.S. forces in the region, which could be targeted by retaliatory attacks by Iran and its proxies, Goff said.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long emphasized that Israel's main enemy is Iran and that the latest attack “could help restore his reputation as Prime Minister Netanyahu.” security,” said Sanam Baqir, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. Still, she said, that may not be enough, with Israel mired in Gaza, Hamas so far undefeated, and Iran and its proxies unabated.
Iran has vowed retaliation and retaliation for what it called an unprecedented attack, but since Oct. 7, “Iran has made it clear that it does not want a regional war,” Baqir said. “We see this conflict with Israel as continuing for a long time.”
U.S. officials do not believe Iran initiated the attack on Hamas or had any advance notice. But Iran still views Gaza as “a victory for itself because it isolates Israel and puts it on the defensive in the region and the world,” said Suzanne Maloney, director of the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution. Stated.
With the ongoing wars and their toll on civilians, “it is almost unthinkable that Israel, the United States and Saudi Arabia will envision the Middle East they have planned by October 7,” she said, adding that the Arab states He said he was opposed to one of Israel's regional recognitions. Expanding Iranian influence.
Still, Baqir said, “This attack is difficult for Iran to ignore because it was a direct attack on an embassy building on Iranian territory and killed three senior commanders of Iran's Quds Force, foreign forces, and intelligence services.” I guess so,” he said. Mission of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The Israeli attack has left Iran with at least one Iranian general, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, his deputy, a third general, and senior officials from the Iranian affiliate Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which is also fighting in Gaza. Four other people were announced dead.
The killing of General Zahedi, who was said to be in charge of Iran's military relations with Syria and Lebanon, is widely considered the most important assassination of an Iranian leader in years.
Former Israeli national security adviser Yaakov Amidrol said General Zahedi's death is “a major blow to Iran's immediate capabilities in the region.” Amidrol said he helped oversee Iran's efforts to build a “ring of fire” around Israel through its extremist proxies, while keeping Tehran's involvement at arm's length.
But when and how Iran retaliates will further increase the risks. The most obvious recent example is the US response to the assassination of Qassim Suleimani, commander of the Quds Force, four years ago. Iran then launched a large-scale missile attack on US military bases in Iraq, but only after receiving advance warning of the attack. The Pentagon later announced that more than 100 service members suffered traumatic brain injuries, but there were no direct casualties to the U.S. military.
Worried, Iran also put itself on high alert and shot down a Ukrainian airliner, believing it to be an enemy plane, killing 176 people.
“But one of the lessons from General Suleimani is that even if you remove key figures, the networks and redundant personnel that Iran has established with the organization are very much here to stay,” Ms. Maloney said.
Iran has recently sought to ease tensions with the United States after three American soldiers were killed in a drone attack on a U.S. military base on the Jordan-Syria border in January.
However, Iran may be willing to risk military escalation with Israel.
Israel could choose other options: a large-scale cyberattack on Israeli infrastructure and military, a barrage of rockets from southern Lebanon, a similar assassination of an Israeli commander, or an attack on Israeli embassies abroad. , or further accelerating its nuclear enrichment program. .
The end will be a kind of direct rebuke to Mr. Netanyahu, who has long warned about the dangers of a nuclear-armed Iran and vowed to prevent them from happening. (Iran has always maintained that its nuclear program is purely peaceful, even though it has enriched uranium to near-weapon-grade levels.)
Or maybe Iran will wait until then. Amidrol, a former Israeli national security adviser, said he suspected the attack could lead to a broader escalation between Israel and Iran, including an all-out war involving Hezbollah along Israel's northern border. He said there was.
“Their interests haven't changed since then. They'll seek revenge, but that's a completely different thing,” he says, and it doesn't have to be limited to neighboring areas.
He previously cited the 1992 Islamic Jihad bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, which killed 29 people, in retaliation for Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Abbas al-Mousawi. did.
aaron boxerman Reporting from Jerusalem and Eric Schmidt from Washington contributed.
